Monday, June 30, 2008
Sunday, June 29, 2008
In my years of research on this topic, a one must-read piece stands out: the 2003 annual report of the Dallas Fed. This 1800-2000 time series chart of the percentage of the American workforce in 3 sectors is worth at least two thousand words:
Material production is becoming so automated that service consumption is the key to understanding future employment in terms of service production. So if you really think that everyone in the future will be flipping burgers, then you also have to believe that everyone will be consuming nothing other than burgers.
The trends show that major increases in consumption will be in health care, education, entertainment, art, and even the movies. And that's where the jobs of the future will be: health care, education, entertainment. More pro sports, more physical therapy, more nurturing of younger and younger children, more training, more video games.
One side note: For those who think the manufacturing jobs were "shipped" overseas, that's not the case at all. America as a nation reached its peak production in 2007 while at the same time losing over 20% of its manufacturing jobs since 2001. Clearly America got more efficient in manufacturing.